Tuesday, January 31, 2006

How do people watch Downloaded Movies?

Time Warner just started a P2P - bittorrent like - subscription download service in Germany. So how do people watch movies once they're downloaded? On the computer?
Doesn't it seem like there's a big cork in this media distribution bottle?
I mean, until there's a brainless way for people to get this content onto their TVs, that doesn't require going back & forth between the TV & computer, hows it going to work? Media Center PCs
1. aren't brainless enough
2. are too expensive
3. aren't really on the consumer radar
4. require you to have a computer in your TV room
5. aren't brainless enough
That's one reason I'm big on the cable companies (hey -- Time Warner is a cable company....)
They could easily integrate downloads into a nice simple transparent "on demand" kind of thing in their cable boxes.
Actually - on demand isn't much different from downloading files like this. It's just not p2p
P2P would make on-demand far more practical for them bandwidth-wise. It might help them with the problem of not enough content.
(I think it's interesting that Comcast says 90+% of on demand programming is free. The thing is, the free content is either
1. repeats of HBO (which you only get if you're already paying for HBO - or other pay channels)
2. CRAP
So what it tells you is that people don't like the On-Demand business model. They want to pay once. Not every time.
The thing is, people will watch a sort of lame movie if there's a fixed cost (monthtly) but no marginal cost.
They don't want to pay $5 on top of their cable bill to watch an Adam Sandler movie. Though they would watch it if it was included.
The fact that people watch all that free crap content more than the paid content (which is actual relatively current releases) proves that.
I'm not saying they will exploit it - but the cable companies have the opportunity.
QUESTION: How are people watching downloaded movies Now??
My best guess is that they're burning them to DVDs. I base that on all the blank DVDs being sold.
(are there any numbers on that? There are so many ads. What else are people burning. I know they're not making backups!)

Sunday, January 29, 2006

The Greatest Mystery In the Known Universe

Why are there no McOnion Rings? McDonalds has market tested McRibs and Mc(cough) Salads. Even McFruit and McDog (local specialty).
Why is there no McOnion Ring to be had anywhere on the planet.
It's gotta be a conspiracy. A "no McRing" pact with the devil.

Friday, January 27, 2006

More Google Sitemaps Odd Behavior

Listing my website on Google Sitemaps killed my listing(sitemaps is a new Google webmaster tool to aid Google in correctly indexing your site). First bestportlandrentals.com was removed from Google search results after I set it up in Sitemaps. I removed the sitemaps entry and in a little over a month, the search results came back. The same thing happened with portlandpage.com. Entered in sitemaps. Got de-googled. Removed from sitemaps. Re-googled.
Maybe there's something I missed. Google seemed to indicate I had made the correct entries. Could be my goof.
In the meantime, I would strongly caution any webmasters out in the world to think 2x before entering a Sitemap with Google.

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Buy Versus Rent

Here's something strange.
Rent for a house in NW Portland is now less than interest on a mortgage by a good amount.
Consider a $500K house.
1 mo interest = $2500 (NOT principal. This is just the interest)
(6%)
Rent is about $1600/mo.
If you rented a house for 5 years, you could pocket $900/mo = $54,000 that would've gone to interest.
If the house has appreciated less than 10% over that time, you would have fared better saving your money and renting). In this market, many would make that bet.
But...
As a renter, you do also get interest on the principal portion you would have paid out over the 5 years had you been making mortgage payments, but that's a wash because you're also paying less interest on the mortgage as you pay principal. It's close to a wash. You also get interest on the $54K saved vs paying interest as it accumulates, but only a couple thousand.
Also, you don't pay property taxes (another $25K over 5 years). Insurance is another $5K.
Add it all up and you save probably at least 100K over 5 years by not buying.
That's 20% of the purchase price. You would have $100,000 more in 5 years if you rent. (Not counting money that would have gone to pay principal. Just money that would've gone to pay interest and other owner expenses versus being a renter).
It looks like buying a house is quite a nasty speculation right now.

Monday, January 16, 2006

Google Plays Good-Cop-Bad-Cop with Itself

First Google de-lists my business site bestportlandrentals.com (apartment rentals in Portland OR) after I enter it in their Sitemaps webmaster tool. Now, a month later, with no more sense than they revoked my (very high) listing, they restore it. But now they remove the listing for my portlandpage.com Portland guide. !
Why? Who knows. Only Google. And you can't talk to Google. Google is everywhere but nowhere. It speaks, but has no voice. It aspires to be not evil, but it is all things, and to be not evil is to be not good, if you are all things.

Saturday, January 07, 2006

Home Theater PCs Finally Get Practical (sort of)

HTPCs are novelty hunks of wires and metal that don't do anything you don't already have some other blinkin' lights box doing. DVD, Tivo, whatever. But Microsoft and DirecTV just announced a deal. Your HTPC (aka Windows MediaCenter PC) will be able to take the place of your DirecTV settop box! (Ditto XBox 360 and some other thingies). At last the HTPC has an actual practical place in the universe.
It's not a cheaper alternative, but it can take the place of your Tivo/PVR, DVD/CD player and DirecTV box. That's something. It may not be easier to use (no one over 50 will ever be able to set it up), it may not be cheaper, and it may not do that much more than what you had. But it will eventually nibble away at all those problems. I think this is the real start of computers in the living room.

When Cable companies follow (they will because they would rather have You buy your own HTPC than pay for your set top box), then the transformation will begin in earnest because that's a much bigger market than DirecTV and it will also have broadband internet access (including music and video downloads) - and probably VoIP too. That's the real potato. If only it would work nice with Apple's iPOD and Video service. HTPCs (that will work with Cable/Satellite providers' systems are Microsoft-centric, so will never really integrate well with iTunes/Apple DRM.

Sunday, January 01, 2006

A Portland Mystery

In the far far North tip of Portland, at Kelly Point, where the Willamette flows into the mighty Columbia there is a parking lot. And in this parking lot are thousands upon thousands of white cars. They are always there. I have never seen one drive in or out. Portland is a big port (Port Land - get it? It's not named after beer. I think), and, sure, maybe they're just new cars on the way to a dealer, but then they wouldn't be all white, would they?!
Google Earth (and real earth too) coordinates:
45deg38'32.02" N 122deg45'32.43 W

These could be the cute economy car equivalent of the Black Helicopters!